Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 1/26/2026
US stocks fell modestly last week as investors digested geopolitical uncertainty and a mixed start to earnings season. Treasury yields were little changed, and credit spreads tightened. The US dollar weakened, while gold hit a record. Key data showed steady inflation, resilient spending, lower jobless claims, and stable business activity readings.
Stocks slip as investors turn more cautious
- US stocks fell over the week as “sell America” worries picked up—driven by geopolitical tensions, concerns about “run it hot” US economic policies, and uncertainty about Federal Reserve leadership and what it could mean for future interest-rate policy.
- The S&P 500 Index ended Friday down 0.4%, marking a second straight weekly loss.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index finished the week down 0.1%, even after large technology stocks bounced late in the week.
- Small-cap stocks ended a 14-session winning streak against large caps Thursday, the longest since 1996. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index lost momentum Friday, sliding 0.3% for the week. Still, the index was up 7.5% year to date, compared with 1.0% for the S&P 500.
- Flows into US equities stayed subdued year to date, suggesting investors have been cautious about adding to US stock exposure.
- Renewed interest in emerging markets: The iShares Emerging Markets Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) saw record monthly inflows.
- Market stress eased: The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) of implied stock market volatility ended the week at 16, down from an intraweek high of 20.
- Economic data stronger than expected: The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index remained near its highest levels since September.
Dollar slides as gold hits record high
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) had its worst week since May, signaling a broad pullback in the dollar versus major currencies.
- Gold jumped to a new all-time high of $4,987 per ounce, as investors looked for safe-haven assets.
Rates steady, bond volatility low
- Treasury yields were largely unchanged: The two-year US Treasury yield was flat at 3.59% last week, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 4.23%.
- Rate volatility remained very low: The MOVE Index of implied Treasury market volatility ended the week near lows last seen in September 2021.
- Rate-cut odds eased: Markets priced only a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in January, as of Friday afternoon.
- Corporate credit valuations looked stronger: Investment-grade (IG) “spreads”—the extra yield IG bonds pay over comparable U.S. Treasuries—tightened to about 70 basis points, the tightest since 1998.
Early earnings slightly below expectations
- So far in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2025 earnings season, results have modestly underperformed Wall Street’s expectations. About 13% of S&P 500 companies had reported.
- Beat rate is slightly below normal: 75% of reporting companies have beaten earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates, versus a 79% beat rate over the past year.
- Growth outlook is essentially unchanged: The blended earnings growth rate (i.e., reported results, plus estimates for the rest) is 8.2%, just under the prior 8.3% expectation.
Inflation steady, spending stays resilient
- The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year in November—largely in line with analyst expectations, supporting a theme of stabilizing inflation
- “Core” PCE (which excludes food and energy) was also steady, rising 0.2% month-over-month.
- The consumer remained resilient: Personal spending increased 0.5% month-over-month in November, matching expectations.
- Income grew more slowly than spending, with personal income rising 0.3% month-over-month in November, following a 0.1% rise in October.
Jobless claims low, labor market steadier
- Initial jobless claims (new filings for unemployment aid) were 200,000 for the week ending Jan. 17, below the 207,000 consensus estimate, suggesting layoffs remain low.
- The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 201,500, the lowest level since 2024, a sign the weekly data is stabilizing.
- Continuing claims (people still receiving benefits) were below estimates and down from the prior week, at 1,849,000, pointing to potentially fewer people staying unemployed.
PMIs steady, manufacturing a bit stronger
- Overall growth stayed modest: The S&P Global Flash Composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 52.8 in January, up slightly from December’s 52.7 and still above 50, which signals expansion.
- Services activity held steady: The Flash Services PMI was 52.5, unchanged from the prior month, suggesting stable services-sector growth.
- Manufacturing improved modestly: The Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.9, the highest in two months, pointing to small improvement in manufacturing activity.
- The Employment measure showed only slight improvement. Input costs pressures remained, but moderated.
CRC# 5152219 (01/2026)
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 01/23/26.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Energy and Materials were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors last week, while Real Estate and Financials lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year Treasury yield was flat at 3.59% last week, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased 1 bp to 4.23%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year in November—largely in line with analyst expectations, supporting a theme of stabilizing inflation. Personal spending increased 0.5% month-over-month, matching expectations.
The Week Ahead
The week ahead brings the Jan. 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as well as readings from the Conference Board’s consumer confidence surveys, the US producer price index (PPI), nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, and durable goods orders. Additionally, the Q4 earnings season continues, with megacap tech companies scheduled to report.
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 AM ET
- US durable goods orders at 8:30 AM ET
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 10:30 AM ET
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 AM ET
- Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 AM ET
- Microsoft Corporation Reports Earnings
- Meta Platforms, Inc. Reports Earnings
- Tesla, Inc. Reports Earnings
- US nonfarm productivity at 8:30 AM ET
- US unit labor costs at 8:30 AM ET
- US initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET
- US trade balance at 8:30 AM ET
- US factory orders at 10:00 AM ET
- Apple Inc. Reports Earnings
- US PPI at 8:30 AM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.