Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 06/30/2025
The S&P 500 rose to a new all-time high, as the Middle East ceasefire, progress in US tariff talks, and the prospect of Fed rate cuts fueled investor optimism. US bond prices rose in tandem with equities while yields fell amid signs of economic softening, including a slowdown in consumer spending. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge edged higher.
S&P 500 rises to new all-time high
- The S&P 500 Index rose 3.4% last week to a new all-time high of 6,173, as investors added about $10 trillion to equities in a recovery from just two months prior.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 4.2%.
- Mega-cap tech stocks, which make up an outsized portion of the cap-weighted S&P 500, helped drive gains for the index, with Nvidia also reaching a new all-time high.
- Markets were encouraged by the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East and progress on US tariff negotiations with both China and the EU. Softer economic data reinvigorated the “bad news is good news” narrative, in which markets react positively to signs of economic weakening because it may lead to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts that can support equity valuations.
- The equal-weighted S&P 500, which allocates the same amount to each stock in the index, underperformed its cap-weighted counterpart, with a 1.8% gain for the week.
- The Chicago Board Options Exchange (COBE) Volatility Index (VIX) fell more than 20% to a four-month low near 16, as a “risk on” sentiment pervaded markets.
- The Stoxx Europe 600 Index continued to rally, now up more than 20% year-to-date in dollar terms.
- The US dollar fell 1.5% last week, with Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing net shorts at $20.1 billion, the most bearish positioning since 2023.
Inflation edges higher, consumer spending falls
- In May, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, both slightly above Wall Street’s consensus expectations. (The “core” metric excludes volatile food and energy prices.) The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than April’s reading.
- Headline PCE rose 0.1% for the month, in line with analyst expectations and consistent with a path that would support Fed rate cuts this year.
- Along with the inflation numbers, personal income declined 0.4% for the month, the most since 2021 and well below consensus expectations, driven by a pullback in government transfers.
- The personal saving rate fell to 4.5% in May, from 4.9% previously.
- Consumer spending fell by the most since the start of the year, putting activity in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025 on a weaker track as consumers grow even more discerning in their spending.
- In tandem, gross domestic product (GDP) was revised down to a 0.5% annualized decline in the first quarter, down from a previously reported 0.2% drop, amid a decrease in consumer spending on services.
- Consumer spending is now estimated to have increased at only 0.5% in Q1, rather than the previously reported 1.2% pace.
Yield curve steepens on rate cut hopes
- The US Treasury yield curve steepened as expectations for lower rates solidified on weaker economic data and dovish Fed commentary.
- US government bond prices rose with equities last week to mark the strongest cross-asset rally since May 2024. The two-year Treasury yield fell 16 basis points to 3.75%, while the 10-year yield dropped 10 basis points to 4.28%.
- Open interest rose across most Treasury futures tenors, suggesting that fresh long positions support the trend of lower yields.
- High-yield bonds extended price gains for a fifth consecutive week.
Consumer confidence falls amid tariff concerns
- US consumer confidence fell to 93.0 in June, from 98.4 in May, reversing last month’s rebound from the US-China trade truce, according to the Conference Board.
- Tariffs remained the top concern among consumers, who were more pessimistic about current and future conditions.
- The share of respondents anticipating better business conditions fell by the most in more than two years.
- The labor market differential weakened to a four-year low, as fewer respondents viewed jobs as “plentiful” relative to those who view jobs as “hard to get.”
- In contrast, the University of Michigan’s final June consumer sentiment reading rose to 60.7, a four-month high, as concerns around the economic outlook and personal finances eased.
- Inflation expectations for both one year ahead and the next 5-10 years ticked lower to 5.0% and 4.0%, respectively, but those figures remain elevated.
- Notably, 57% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down from two-thirds in March.
New home sales decline, prices rise
- Purchases of new US single-family homes fell by the most in nearly three years in May.
- The median sales price of a new home sold in May rose 3% year-over-year to $426,600.
- Homebuilders continued to contend with affordability challenges, slower construction and rising inventories of unsold homes.
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 06/27/25.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Communication Services and Information Technology were the strongest-performing sectors last week, while Real Estate and Energy lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks underperformed large-cap equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year US Treasury yield decreased 16 bps to 3.75% last week, while the 10-year yield fell 10 bps to 4.28%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
May core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, both slightly above consensus expectations, while headline PCE rose 0.1% for the month, in line with expectations, consistent with a path supportive of Fed rate cuts this year.
The Week Ahead
The holiday-shortened week ahead brings data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP, and the nonfarm payrolls report. Investors will be closely watching the readings to assess labor market strength, as demand softens and many firms find themselves unable to pass on the full cost of tariffs. As the quieter summer period begins and trading volumes fall, markets may be more sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
- MNI Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity at 10:30 AM ET
- ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Manufacturing New Orders at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Manufacturing Employment at 10:00 AM ET
- JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM ET
- JOLTS Quits Rate at 10:00 AM ET
- JOLTS Layoffs Rate at 10:00 AM ET
- Constellation Brands Inc Reports Earnings
- ADP Employment Change at 8:15 AM ET
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 AM ET
- Unemployment Rate at 8:30 AM ET
- Labor Force Participation Rate at 8:30 AM ET
- Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET
- ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Services Prices Paid at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Services New Orders at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Services Employment at 10:00 AM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.