Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 07/21/2025
Equity markets hit new highs and volatility remained muted, as economic data surprised to the upside and stock investors looked past tariff uncertainty. However, trade and inflation worries persisted in bond markets, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield above 5%. Consumer inflation ticked up in June, while consumer sentiment hit a five-month high.
Equity markets hit new highs as tariff fears ease
- The US stock market shook off political noise last week, with the S&P 500 Index advancing 0.6% to 6,297, a new all-time high and the sixth record in July. The gains extended a 17-day streak without a move of more than 1% in either direction. The S&P 500 is now up 26% from its April lows.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index surged 1.3% last week, while the small-cap Russell 2000 Index rose just 0.2%.
- Volatility was muted, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), known as the stock market’s “fear gauge,” remaining in the 16-17 range for a fourth week.
- While US President Donald Trump fueled headlines over potentially replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, trade uncertainty eased and economic data surprised to the upside, with the Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index reaching its highest level since May.
- The US dollar rallied 0.6% against a basket of other major currencies last week. The greenback is up nearly 2% from its July 1 low, having recouped a small portion of its 10% drop from a peak in May.
- Bitcoin has surged more than 50% from its low in April and is hovering near record highs.
- A representative “60/40” portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds is now up 6% year-to-date, as stock-bond correlations have shifted back toward their 10-year average.
Inflation concerns push 30-year Treasury yield higher
- The two-year US Treasury yield decreased 2 basis points to 3.87% last week, while the 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.42%.
- The 30-year yield rose above 5% for the first time since June, as market-implied inflation expectations ticked higher on concerns that tariff-linked price pressures could delay Fed rate cuts.
- Markets were pricing near-zero odds of a Fed rate cut in July and about 45 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from more than 65 basis points of cuts expected at the start of the month.
Inflation picks up somewhat in June, as forecast
- The consumer price index (CPI), a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in June, in line with Wall Street analysts’ consensus expectations. The annual rate is the highest since February and above the Fed’s 2% target.
- “Core” CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2% month-over-month, cooler than the 0.3% increase that analysts expected, marking a fourth straight subdued print.
- While some firms passed tariff costs on to consumers, prices cooled in vehicles and hotels, as consumers pulled back on non-essential spending.
- Shelter prices decelerated. Real average hourly earnings growth slowed to 1.0% from a year before, the weakest rate since the start of 2025.
- Meanwhile, the producer price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale prices, was flat month-over-month in June, below consensus expectations of a 0.2% rise.
Consumer sentiment hits 5-month high
- In a preliminary July reading, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 61.8, from 60.7 previously, the highest level in five months.
- Consumers’ one-year inflation expectations fell for a second month to 4.4%, from 5.0% previously, while five-to-10-year expectations fell for a third month to 4.0%, from 3.6%.
- The “current conditions” component of the index improved to the highest reading since January, with consumers more optimistic about their personal finances, likely due to recent stock market gains.
Retail sales rise, easing consumer slowdown fears
- US retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in June, easing investors’ concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending after two months of declines. The rate exceeded consensus expectations of a 0.2% increase, with autos and other goods improving from May’s pullback.
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 07/18/25.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Information Technology and Utilities were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors last week, while Health Care and Energy lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks underperformed large-cap equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year US Treasury yield decreased 2 bps to 3.87% last week, while the 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.42%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
Headline CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in June, in line with consensus expectations. Core CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month, cooler than the consensus forecast of 0.3%, marking a fourth straight subdued print.
The Week Ahead
The week ahead brings data for existing and new home sales, S&P Global purchasing manager indexes (PMIs), Richmond Fed manufacturing activity, and continued second-quarter (Q2) corporate earnings reports.
- Leading Index at 10:00 AM ET
- Verizon Communications Inc. Reports Earnings
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 AM ET
- Richmond Fed Business Conditions at 10:00 AM ET
- The Coca-Cola Company Reports Earnings
- Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET
- Alphabet Inc. Reports Earnings
- Tesla Inc. Reports Earnings
- T-Mobile US, Inc. Reports Earnings
- ServiceNow, Inc. Reports Earnings
- AT&T Inc. Reports Earnings
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 AM ET
- Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 AM ET
- S&P Global US Services PMI at 9:45 AM ET
- S&P Global US Composite PMI at 9:45 AM ET
- New Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET
- Building Permits at 11:00 AM ET
- Honeywell International Inc. Reports Earnings
- Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.